Turmoil in Asia a threat
More than the usual amount of uncertainty clouds the U.S. economic outlook in the new year after financial storms pelted Asia in 1997.
The United States, without doubt, will feel the impact in 1998. But most economists think the spillover will only dampen, not douse, the U.S. economy.
They see 1998 as a sort of 1997 lite — good, but not quite as good. There’ll be somewhat less growth, possibly a bit more inflation, perhaps slightly higher unemployment.
As a result, the current business expansion, finishing its seventh year of uninterrupted growth, should become the second-longest in U.S. history by the end of the year.
Of course, forecasting is never a sure thing: Most analysts thought an economic slowdown would come in 1997. And they could be just as wrong about 1998.
“It would be very foolish to ignore the risks for major economic disruption,” said economist Norman Robertson of Smithfield Trust Co. in Pittsburgh. “The Asian problems are by no means resolved.”
Turmoil has spread from smaller economies such as Thailand’s to Korea’s, the world’s 11th-largest. The second-largest — Japan — is struggling. Will the contagion spread to the biggest — the United States’?
The primary path would be trade. Exports account for nearly an eighth of total U.S. economic output. Pacific Rim countries buy 30 percent.
That said, U.S. prosperity is so robust and broad-based that most analysts have a difficult time believing a recession near.
“Perversely, the slowdown in the near term makes a recession less likely in 1999 or 2000,” said economist David Wyss of DRI-McGraw Hill.
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